Every year, horse racing enthusiasts sit down to discuss the possibility of getting a Triple Crown. In history, only 13 3-year-old Thoroughbreds have won the Triple Crown, which is arguably the most difficult achievement in all of the sports. The last horse to win the competition was Justify in 2018. Will 2022 produce the Triple Crown winner? Let’s try to figure it out so you can plan your bets against the odds of the Triple Crown.
Will there be a triple crown this year? | Horse racing betting
Triple Crown of Horse Racing
Kentucky Derby top ten points
- Rattle ‘n’ Roll
- Jack Christopher
- make it big
- smile happily
- slow down andy
- major General
- Dash attack
- Mo Donegal
How will the absence of Bob Baffert’s runners affect the Kentucky Derby?
Bob Baffert trained the last two horses that won the crown. Bob put the saddle on American Pharoah in 2015 and Justify in 2018.
This year, Baffert may not be managing a 3-year-old. It’s not that Baffert didn’t want any of his sophomores running monsters. That’s because Churchill Downs believes Baffert encouraged City of Spirit to win the 2021 Kentucky Derby.
The fact that Medina died of a heart attack after training about a month ago doesn’t help Bob’s case. If Churchill decided a two-year ban on Baffert defenders, Bob might not ride a pony in The Run for the Roses, meaning none of his 3-year-olds could win the crown.
Are the owners pulling the cornice from Baffert?
Cornish is the most talented 3-year-old on the planet. Churchill Downs is so intent on knocking out Baffert that the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner doesn’t even appear in the top 10.
Winning the Kentucky Derby is a big deal. So if Baffert can’t run on horses at Churchill, the Speedway Staple, Cornish owners can turn into a familiar face, Michael Steadham.
But given the capacity of the cornice, we must assume that any trainer in the United States would be happy to have a horse in their barn. Todd Bletcher would jump at the chance. So do Steve Asmussen, Doug O’Neill, who trains in Santa Anita like Baffert and has won a couple Kentucky Derby, or even Chad Brown.
Which of the current top ten has the best chance of winning the Triple Crown?
Trainer Mark Cass Pappacap is a good race horse. The Gun Runner’s bred colt comes from the mare Scat Daddy, which means it will have no problem running the 1 ½ miles, the Belmont distance.
Bleacher’s best runner is Moe Donegal. The Class 2 Remsen winner was nominated by Uncle Mo who is from the brood of Pulpit.
Jack Christopher is worth a look. Chad Brown would have held the first or second choice in the BC event, but decided to scratch Christopher. If Brown can get the champagne winner back on track, Brown may look to his first legitimate competitor in the Derby.
Conclusion: Will there be a Triple Crown winner in 2022?
The easy answer is no because the Triple Crown has only happened 13 times in the history of thoroughbred racing.
But, again, no one really believed that the Secretariat would win the crown because Sham looked so good on paper. No one thought the certain would win the TC because Alidar seemed to be the better horse.
Justify broke his virgin the same year he won the Triple Crown. Nobody believed that this would happen.
This does not mean that the horse will win the crown in 2022. It does mean that we must handicap some of the other contenders outside the Corniche, particularly Mo Donegal, Pappacap and Jack Cristopher, before we can decide not to get a horse a TC.
After all, if the cornice doesn’t work, or doesn’t work well with a different trainer, who knows? It may open the door for a runner like Pappacap, who has finished second on the Corniche twice in his last two races through to the end of 2021, to win the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont.